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  Seguimiento semanal de cartera minera.  
Respuesta

DEGIRO, el bróker de bolsa con alta 100% online, gratuita y con tarifas inusualmente bajas.
Invertir puede ser rentable, pero no está exento de riesgos de perder el dinero depositado. Puede perder (parte de) su depósito. Empiece a operar en más de 50 mercados.


 
Herramientas
Viejo 08-feb-2020, 23:49   #121
duply
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Nov 2017 | 3.519 Mens.

El inversor modesto.

Cita:
Originalmente Escrito por Pesetacoiner Ver Mensaje
Evitas compañias con exposición a alguna jurisdicción en concreto?
Cita:
Originalmente Escrito por duply
Solamente evito a China porque no me fio de ellos. Si pudiera visitar y ver lo que hay o deja de haber vale, pero de dictaduras no me fío, lo siento.
..

Última edición por duply fecha: 08-feb-2020 a las 23:54.
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Viejo 08-feb-2020, 23:57   #122
Pesetacoiner
Q vuelve la rubia cohone
 
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Dic 2017 | 1.251 Mens.
Cita:
Originalmente Escrito por duply Ver Mensaje


China ni con un palo. Que no os vendan la moto.
Que ha pasado ahi?
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Viejo 14-feb-2020, 22:22   #123
duply
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Nov 2017 | 3.519 Mens.

El inversor modesto.

Movimiento semanal ETF SILJ: -1,87%
Movimiento semanal índice XAU: +0,67%
Movimiento semanal cartera apalancada 1,6x: +2,41%
Rentabilidad desde el inicio del seguimiento (10 semanas): +5,79%
Movimiento del ETF SILJ desde el inicio del seguimiento (10 semanas): -2,44%
Movimiento índice XAU desde el inicio del seguimiento (10 semanas): +6,35%

Esta semana me ha ido muy bien con la especulación en el sector, con otro bróker y apalancado he cerrado un swing del oro desde 1552 y de 4 especulaciones con presentaciones de resultados 3 han sido positivas y la otra no se mueve de momento.



SILJ:

Última edición por duply fecha: 17-feb-2020 a las 19:50.
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Viejo 15-feb-2020, 00:05   #124
duply
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El inversor modesto.

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Originalmente Escrito por Pesetacoiner Ver Mensaje
Que ha pasado ahi?
Resultados muy alejados de las expectativas.
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Viejo 15-feb-2020, 03:32   #125
kurtis
En busca del pelotazo
 
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Mar 2003 | 10.199 Mens.

460k y subiendo

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Viejo 15-feb-2020, 10:09   #126
duply
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El inversor modesto.

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Muy bueno .

He incluido el índice XAU en los informes semanales ya que está menos expuesto a la plata que el ETF SILJ. Últimamente la plata está rezagada respecto al oro.

https://es.investing.com/indices/phi...ver-components
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Viejo 15-feb-2020, 10:39   #127
duply
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El inversor modesto.

Ejemplos de acciones FUERTES:

PAAS:



SBGL:
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Viejo 15-feb-2020, 11:44   #128
Beers & Bars
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Ago 2017 | 2.864 Mens.
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Bicicleta

Cita:
Originalmente Escrito por duply Ver Mensaje
Ejemplos de acciones FUERTES:

PAAS:



SBGL:
Ya te dije que te hice caso y compré Yamana Gold.

Esa tu la llevas para largo plazo no?
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Viejo 15-feb-2020, 13:22   #129
duply
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El inversor modesto.

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Originalmente Escrito por Beers & Bars Ver Mensaje
Ya te dije que te hice caso y compré Yamana Gold.

Esa tu la llevas para largo plazo no?
Sí señor. Yamana va bien y vamos a largo. Aunque de vez en cuando me da por juguetear y tener los valores una sola noche apalancado.





Este 2020 no he hecho ningún movimiento en mi cartera de acciones. Salvo desastre en las onzas o problemas graves en las empresas no vendo. Teniendo la tendencia primaria alcista prefiero no hacer muchos movimientos. La tendencia es mi amiga y el tiempo también. Si alguna se retrasa en su cotización puede que haga rotaciones, pero actualmente creo que el sector está en "stand by" y antes de tocar la cartera es mejor esperar a ver qué velocidad lleva cada acción cuando el sector pegue el siguiente tirón.

Por cierto, el gráfico de PAAS tiene una pinta brutal. Comprimir movimiento mientras el sector cae y a nada que la plata suba de 18, ¡despegamos de nuevo!

Última edición por duply fecha: 15-feb-2020 a las 15:17.
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Viejo 15-feb-2020, 14:47   #130
duply
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El inversor modesto.


Última edición por duply fecha: 15-feb-2020 a las 14:50.
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Viejo 15-feb-2020, 15:05   #131
danhii
FC-Аdmin
 
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Dic 2010 | 4.020 Mens.
Lugar: Jaen/Malaga
La plata debería de subir?

Última edición por Electrik fecha: Hoy a las 01:58
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Viejo 15-feb-2020, 15:11   #132
duply
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El inversor modesto.

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Originalmente Escrito por danhii Ver Mensaje
La plata debería de subir?
Claro, pero no sabemos cuándo. Mientras no se hunda, toca aguantar posiciones. Históricamente sube de manera muy violenta.

Los del gorrito de papel de aluminio piensan en cosas como esta: https://www.rankia.com/blog/metales-...jpmorgan-plata

Yo me limito a observar.
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Viejo 15-feb-2020, 17:43   #133
Beers & Bars
Calistenico / ExPichula
 
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Ago 2017 | 2.864 Mens.
Lugar: Zaragoza

Bicicleta

Cita:
Originalmente Escrito por duply Ver Mensaje
Sí señor. Yamana va bien y vamos a largo. Aunque de vez en cuando me da por juguetear y tener los valores una sola noche apalancado.





Este 2020 no he hecho ningún movimiento en mi cartera de acciones. Salvo desastre en las onzas o problemas graves en las empresas no vendo. Teniendo la tendencia primaria alcista prefiero no hacer muchos movimientos. La tendencia es mi amiga y el tiempo también. Si alguna se retrasa en su cotización puede que haga rotaciones, pero actualmente creo que el sector está en "stand by" y antes de tocar la cartera es mejor esperar a ver qué velocidad lleva cada acción cuando el sector pegue el siguiente tirón.

Por cierto, el gráfico de PAAS tiene una pinta brutal. Comprimir movimiento mientras el sector cae y a nada que la plata suba de 18, ¡despegamos de nuevo!
Para ti cuanto es largo?

Pan American no la llevo
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Viejo 15-feb-2020, 17:55   #134
duply
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El inversor modesto.

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Originalmente Escrito por Beers & Bars Ver Mensaje
Para ti cuanto es largo?

Pan American no la llevo
Hasta que haya desastre en las onzas. Si me hablas del oro sería perder 1550 con importante volumen y sin absorción.
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Viejo 15-feb-2020, 19:22   #135
duply
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El inversor modesto.

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Originalmente Escrito por danhii Ver Mensaje
La plata debería de subir?
El papel lo aguanta todo. A este yo le llamo el "tiratazones" : https://goldtadise.com/
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Viejo 15-feb-2020, 19:26   #136
duply
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El inversor modesto.



Este indicador basado en las bandas de Bollinger SIMPLEMENTE indica compresión del precio en una franja "extrema" del precio de los últimos tiempos. Se espera que resuelva al alza ya que el precio del oro sube y la presentación de resultados anuales está siendo buena, pero también se puede ir el precio al infierno, para qué nos vamos a engañar.

Última edición por duply fecha: 15-feb-2020 a las 19:45.
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Viejo 17-feb-2020, 18:33   #137
duply
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Nov 2017 | 3.519 Mens.

El inversor modesto.



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Viejo 17-feb-2020, 19:12   #138
Corlagon
Zidane, uno di noi.
 
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Oct 2010 | 15.605 Mens.

Forero con valors y humildat

Con 5,76% en 10 semanas no vas a llegar al 50% ni de broma. Y más teniendo en cuenta que en este tiempo el mayor drawdown del SP no habrá sido ni del 3%, algo inusual incluso en mercados muy alcistas.

Otra cosa: estás muy por detrás del índice XAU. Si tienes un 150% invertido tendrías que compararte con 1,5 veces el XAU, es decir, casi un 10%. Te habría ido mucho mejor al 150% en ese índice.


Dicho esto, es buena rentabilidad.

Prefiero ir al infierno. Allí están Julio Cesar, Alejandro Magno y otros valerosos comandantes. En el cielo solo hay pescadores y carpinteros y hombres de poco brío.
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Viejo 17-feb-2020, 19:49   #139
duply
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El inversor modesto.

Cita:
Originalmente Escrito por Corlagon Ver Mensaje
Con 5,76% en 10 semanas no vas a llegar al 50% ni de broma. Y más teniendo en cuenta que en este tiempo el mayor drawdown del SP no habrá sido ni del 3%, algo inusual incluso en mercados muy alcistas.

Otra cosa: estás muy por detrás del índice XAU. Si tienes un 150% invertido tendrías que compararte con 1,5 veces el XAU, es decir, casi un 10%. Te habría ido mucho mejor al 150% en ese índice.


Dicho esto, es buena rentabilidad.
Sobre el 50% ya veremos. Es un error suponer que un año entero va a ser igual de "malo" que las últimas semanas. Lo más probable es que acelere, hacia arriba o hacia abajo, eso ya lo dirá el tiempo jejeje. A nada que haya un rally como el de mediados de 2019 no es tan complicado alcanzarlo. Entre que las cotizaciones de mineras están retrasadas respecto a las onzas, que tendremos elecciones en USA, las post-elecciones, las bajadas de tipos que vendrán... hay muchos factores. Mientras el sector esté a ralentí y mi cartera no pierda dinero yo estoy contento. Quiero estar posicionado para el próximo empujón. Si mientras gano algo, pues bien.

No es apropiado compararme con el XAU ya que estoy mucho más expuesto a la plata porque históricamente cuando sube lo hace violentamente, mientras no pierda soportes tendré paciencia. No obstante subo el dato del XAU para evidenciar lo que pasa últimamente, que el oro sube pero la plata no. Mi cartera es más reactiva que los 2 índices de los que hablamos.

Última edición por duply fecha: 17-feb-2020 a las 20:12.
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Viejo 18-feb-2020, 15:34   #140
Pesetacoiner
Q vuelve la rubia cohone
 
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Dic 2017 | 1.251 Mens.
Paso a compartir el resumen de los libros que me he leido de mineria junior.
Decir que no es un resumen, sino que me he quedado con lo que mas interesante me ha parecido a mi.
Aclarar que al final son dos libros sobre el mismo tema, por lo que se repiten bastantes cosas.

Comentar que yo ando analizando empresas ahora y estoy poco a poco haciendome la cartera. Cuando la tenga acabada (esta pensada para el largo plazo mas q para andar rotando) la comparto y me decis que os parece.

Como adelanto, os comento que he visto que las senior ya han subido bastante el año pasado por lo que veo que aunque va a seguir subiendo (todo esto suponiendo que el oro sigue subiendo) puede que sea el momento de las mid-tier o las junior por lo que tengo bastante exposición a ellas.

Aclarar que mi cartera se basa en la predicción/esperanza/lógica de que el oro va a hacer nuevos máximos. Si eso no se cumple, la hostia puede ser fina.




Libro 1: Junior Mining Investor. 14 natural resource experts show you how to invest profitably in emerging gold, silver, platinum, base metals and uranium mining and exploration stocks by Kevin Corcoran

Código:
Intro

The resource sector has experienced numerous booms and busts over the past centuries. Lean times lead to consolidation as the number of producers decrease and production falls. At some point, inventories tighten, and demand drives prices relatively higher once again – launching mining and exploration stocks into their next bull market cycle. 



1. So you think you can speculate?
Dr. Russell McDougal

- Warren Buffet: “Pick a particular market niche, learn more about that sector than 90% of the other participants, and you will make your fortune.”
- I would advise that you take the original money to safety once a stock doubles and the let the rest ride worry free. 
- Once an ideal speculation is chose you can “average down” or “hold for the long term”.



2. How to pick a good mining company.
 David Morgan

- Developing a mine involves an abundance of time and money. It can take five years or longer from the time a prospective property is identified until full production is achieved. Before exploration can take place, the ore body needs to be defined through a drilling program. Based on results, a feasibility study neeeds to be completed. Recently, this phase has taken on significant demands based upon current enviromental concerns. At every step so far there is considerable risk.  

Exploration risk
- Not all exploration projects will lead to discovery.

Assay risk
- Some companies just release the good assay. In some cases it is beneficial to skew the results depending upon which side of the transaction your interest is established. 

Management risk
- Who's got a long-term track record of success? Who doesn't?

Financial risk
- Is the investment sound? 

Trading risk
- How liquid is your investment? Is there Institutional involvement? How many shares trade? The higher the cost of mining, the greater the fluctuations in profits.

Geopolitical risk
- Political risk? Geographical risk? The topography and climatic conditions may determine when mining activity can take place and when it is impossible. How many properties does a company own? 

Quality + Safety = Maximum results
The bigger, low debt, low hedged or lightly hedged companies have been favored over all others. 



3. Junior Gold Stocks.
 Scott Wright

History/Management
- Taking a close look at company history and its existing management team can be quite revealing. You have to dig deep in old prospectuses, regulatory filings, MDA reports, old press releases. 
- Some juniors have rich histories yet others are fresh new start-ups. Handful of others that may have gone through name and(or management changes to either mask the past or shift their strategic direction.
- What accomplishements, have on its resume? Has the company exhibited asset growth and valuation growth? What changes has it gone through and how has it weathered adverse market conditions?
- Some juniors are great at discovery but outright avoid development and hefty project-funding risks. They believe in increasing shareholder value by either keeping their gold in the ground or selling it to the bigger fish in order to obtain the capital to start the cycle all over again. 
- Some companies have been sitting on a project for decades without making significant progress. When the markets are tight they hibernate, and when the markets are good they turn on the spotlight steering unsuspecting investors to their stagnant stories. 
- As for management, experience is pivoltal in the success of a junior. Companies have little room for error. Successful management teams are headed by highly trained geologist, experienced and respected industry tradesmen or a combination of the two. 
- Have members of management had past successes or failures while in decision-making positions? Has the team or individual led successful voyages or captained sinking ships? Are the executives industry veterans or serial promoters?

Exploration
- Their function in the lifycycle of bringing gold to market rests in discovery, advancement and development of promising gold deposits.
- An early phase of exploration in which many juniors reside is called greenfields. Greenfields exploration is the poke-and-find able method of exploring a broad target area that has initially favorable geology with little or no evidence of mineralization. Greenfields exploration is one of the riskier phases of exploration. Many juniors become insolvent upon greenfields failure. Positive results from mapping, surface sampling and drilling in greenfields exploration could push a project to the next phase of exploration. 
- Extensive drilling and core sampling, formally called scoping studies. Is usually the first step in examining the economic viability of a mineral deposit. If positive results, then a project usually gets advanced to the feasibility phase. 
- Pre-feasibility study provide reasonable accurate yet rough project cost and operating schedule projections. Mature miners with deeper pockets will sometimes use pre-feasibility studies to make a construction decision.
- Bankers that finance the bulk of a junior gold project require what are called either full, bankable or definitive feasibilites studies. 
- Full feasibility studies are comprehensive technical reports compiled through extensive drilling programs that reveal the true depth and breadth of a gold deposit. This study tipically provides detailed project capital costs, economic reserves, operating cost projections, mine life projections, IRR scenarios, recurring expenses, timelines and much more. 
- Some of the more extensive studies may take several years to complete especially for some of the thin-pocketed junior that can't employ a dozen drills at a time. 
- After finding out where a junior gold stock falls in the exploration cycle, ask this questions. How long has it been in its given phase? Is it making progress in its efforts? Is it reporting its results and are they positive? Has it projected when the next phase will likely begin?

Resouces
- Resources are the estimated gold ounces within a specific location that a junior claims to possess.
- Whereas gold producers are extracting their gold from gold reserves that are proven to be economically feasible, resources are not yet so. 
- More testing and drilling needs to be perfomed in such feasibility tests, as mentioned above, in order for resources to get the upgrade to reserves. Similar to the different phases of exploration, there are different levels of resources. 
- Resources scale up in viability: Inferred, Indicated, Measured, Probable and Proven. Once enough evidence is obtained on the depth and breadth of a deposit, resources can scale up the resource curve either until the evidence supports shelving the project or taking it all the way to production. 
- Economics play a huge role. It may be discovered that there are indeed resources within a deposit. Depending on the price pero ounce, they will be considered feasible reserves or not. This can change depending on the gold spot price. 
- In examining junior golds, a red flag can be hoisted if no activity or operating plan is discernable for identified resources. A company that sits on its laurels and just hopes its resources alone will carry its stock through this gold bull will sorely disappoint investors. Those juniors that grow and upgrade their existing resources, should always be viewed with favor.

Funding and financing
- Funding and financing for the junior golds are often overlooked by many investors, but for a variety of reasons it is vital to pay careful attention to this area. Geopolitics are also playing an increasingly important role in the gold-mining industry. 
- If it actually has poor assets without a legitimate business plan it will swallow investor capital so fast it would be difficult to recover.



4. 12 Guidelines for buying gold mining stocks.
 Kenneth J. Gerbino

1.
If the company does not have an independent professional resource calculation someone is either speculating or guessing at the most critical data point regarding mining industry valuations. 

2.
60% invested in companies already producing gold or silver profitably. 40% divide into companies close to production with impressive projects or very far along in defining large and significant mineral resources. Diversify in at least 15 good companies. 

3.
My definition of good management is 20-year mining professionals who have had successful executive positions with large or successful mining companies or projects in the past. People who ran mid-tier companies or succesfsfully helped bring medium to large project to production also qualify. 

4.
- Size is very important. Try and look for 2-3 million ounces and above possibilities. With silver, 100 million ounces should be your minimum. 
- If the resource is too deep under the surface, of very low grade, or has one of many other negative reasons, it may never be economical to mine. 

5.
- Grade (richness) is crucial. Surface potential open pit gold deposit, 2 grams per tonne would be excellent. 1 gram would be fair as long as you don't have to remove too much waste rock to get at the ore. 
- If you can find gold grades of 10 grams averaging 3-4 meters width, you are looking at good potential. Lower grades across wider widths also work (i.e. 6-7 grams across 10 meters). 
- The sweet spot in this industry is high grades across wide zones of mineralization.

6.
For non-producers, resource expansion is crucial. Mining companies with plenty of production and new mines coming on stream in the years ahead are usually a good group to own. Growth is good. 

7.
- Cost per ounce of production is very important. Large mining companies are not going to buy-out high cost producers. 
- Companies operating at high costs (within $100 of the gold price) or that have projects that look like they will be high cost producers, should be avoided. High costs equal high anxiety.

8.
- Value per ounce: (The following guidelines relate to a $350-400 gold price).
- For advanced exploration companies, try and stay in a valuation range around $15 pero ounce of resource in the ground.  
- As companies move up the food chain and expnad and define the resource and test metallurgy and do engineering studies, the market capitalization per ounce should go up to ·30-50 per ounces. 
- Initial resource definition usually allows for a value of $5-10 per ounce. Bankable feasibility stage those same ounces could be valued at $40-75 per ounce.
- Most likely those ounces will never see daylight due to any number of reasons: enviromental, logistics and infrastructure problems, political risk, low grades, high capital costs, narrow mining widths, high strip ratios and a host of other reasons. 

9.
Be careful of the small grass roots exploration companies. Surface sampling is they key to the difficult exploration business. 

10.
- A key stat is cash flow per share if the company is already a producer. Large gold mining companies can sel for 15-20 times cash flow in a good gold market. Mid-tier and smaller producers can sell for 25-35 times current cash flow. 
- Beware high cost producers selling at high multiples of cash flow, as they will get hit very hard if gold has a set back. 

11.
Comparisons are an important ingredient to avoid overpriced companies and missing some real bargains. 
- Compare the basics: grades, tonnage, costs per ounce, costs per tonne, smelter charges, reserve or resource value per dollar invested, market cap per reserve/resource ounce, discounted cash flows and the net present values of the mining assets. 

12.
Be careful of the term “gross metal value”. The ore will have a mine waste factor (5-15%), recovery losses in the mill or from the leach pads (5-20%), and smelter, refinery, transportation and penalty costs for base metals (20-35%). Throw in royalties, state and local taxes and other expenses and you will see that gross metal value is less important to your analysis than other ingredientes that would determine a quality mining investment. 



5. Junior Gold Stocks 2
 Scott Wright

Geopolitics
- Depending on the primary country of operation, geopolitical-risk discounts must be considered for many junior gold stocks. The threat of violence, war and terror supports further discounts to junior golds. 
- The country of operation needs to be strategically examined and its history and reputation with foreign business and its dealing with resource-specific companies should be considered. 

Financing/Funding
- The primary source of capital for junior golds in the exploration stage comes from equity financing. 
- Junior need to gain believersin their story too in order to obtain enough capital to keep them functioning. This is why the marketing and promotional games commonly associated with the juniors are so important. 
- When researching juniors it is important to look past the smoke and mirrors that their first look facades may present. Some juniors may be guilty of over-promoting their assets while others are guilty of misleading investors by telling a story that is downright false in order to inflate their stock prices. 
- Researching this thread serves a dual purpose. First, it forces you to utilize other aspects of reserach that include history, management, exploration, resources, and geopolitics to determine the strenght and legitimacy of the story a junior is trying to tell. The second lies on the other side of the line where you may come across a junior that is poorly marketed and not spreading its story well enough. In this case diligent research cound prove to present a great buying opportunity. 
- A typical junior-level private placement of shares, consists of a consortium of investors that subscribe to shares and/or warrants at a fixed price. In many cases, some of the investors are tasked to market and promote the stock. 
- Be leery of aggresive marketing campaigns that might correspond with the timing of the unlocking of restricted shares. Don't buy on hype, but on unbiased and intelligent research. 
- A good junior should be using the lion's share of its financing for exploration with a small and reasonable balance for other expenses such as compensation and marketing.
- If a junior is strong enough so its equity financing can take it all the way to the final feasibility phase of a gold project, then it must begin to consider obtaining the funds to actually construct a gold mine. 
- Constructing a gold mine can cost from the tens of millions on the low end up to well over a billion dollars on the high end. 
- Once the tedious technical studies and environmental permitting are complete, large international banks are usually called upon to provide debt facilities that allow the juniors to construct a mine. In most cases, some variant of hedging is likely to find its way into the loan requirements. The most common is in the form of forward sales. 
- When examining a hedging structure, a heavy hedge can indeed be a showstopper in the speculation decision. If too high of a percentage of gold is sold forward, then it is not worth risking your capital in a company where a bull market would eat it alive. 

Conclusion
- Though not always the case, the larger the junior the less risky it shoud be. There are four different levels: 
+ The largest and most mature juniors are on the verge of becoming gold producers within the next 24 or so months. 
+ The next level junior hovers around the mid-tier level. Has resources through preliminary positive technical studies and has a defined drilling program to advance its projects. Within the next 12 or 24 months this company expects to make an economic viability decision on its flagship project. 
+ The next level are nano juniors. This company could be just getting started in the resource develoment game and has land holdings that are promising with very early testing showing encouraging results. 
+ The last level junior is a trend chaser, a serial promoter or a schemer. It spends more money on marketing, promotion and salaries than it does on exploration. Its sole purpose is to exploit the gold bull run. The dot-junior has no desire to ever become a gold miner. 
- A company doomed for failure may have good initial momentum as it follows the industry trend, but when it's revealed that it has poor assets without a legitimate business plan, watch out. 



6. How to choose a urianum stock: Ten tips investors should know
 Kevin Bambrough and Jean Francois Tardif

1.
Best indicators of a project's potentail success could be past ownership. It's best to try to buy any mining stock early in the cycle. 
2.
We avoid pure exploration plays unless management is excellent, they have a large prospective land package and the company is well financed. 
3. 
Look for good, proven management, which has been successful in the past.
4.
Management has large stake in the company.
5.
Find out about electricity and water costs required for exploration, develompent and production. Find out about roads, rail, trucking, access and proximity of a mill. 
6.
Look for hidden value in the company. 
7.
Buy emerging stories. Find it before it has any analyst coverage. 
8. 
Property is in a pro-mining environment. 
9. 
Study the capital costs for the project. 
10. 
Funding can improve the story or outlook. 



7. How to minimize risk in speculative gold and resource stocks
 Adrian Day

Low-risk business models are a surer way to success
- The first is the royalty model. This involves purchasing existing underlying royalties on properties. They can be at a fixed rate, or more frequently at a sliding scale, which vaires with the price of the underlying commodity. 
- The second model is that of a prospect generator. Spending as little as possible in the early stage before bringing in a partner to spend the exploration dollars. 
- The stocks of companies with these low-risk models may not necessarily have the strongest performance over the shortest time frame, but they do have the lowest risk over time and will participate in a strong bull market. 



8. The perfect resource exploration stock
 Dr. Russell McDougal

- The ideal start-up explorer will have a large land package and/or multiple properties under contract. Seeking world class deposits in mining friendly and politically stable countries or jurisdictions. Employing grass roots exploration staff with geologist that are proficient. 
- A Toronto listing is the typical starting point. NASDAQ, AMEX and other global listings come later for those that are successful in their efforts.
- The company must be well funded and have the ability to raise funds. 
- A market cap under $60 million is a resonable range where most start-up exploration companies will be found. 
- Company management must also own a significant percent of the company (minimum 10%).

Exploration progress
- The perfect exploration stock will be adept at finding grass roots projects with vast potential. As few as six or as many as thirty. The properties will ideally have a broad spectrum of target minerals. 
- You want as many quality joint ventures as you can get within your company portfolio. With joint ventures in place out start-up company will start receiving more market attention. Exploration progress may now take the company's market cap towards the $150 million range. 

Discovery
- This is exactly what you look for in resource exploration – highly experienced operators. 



9. “How much is that”
A primer for converting terms and numbers used to describle mineral 
deposits into dollar value and stock price
 Brian Fagan

Distance & Area
- Where is the property located? How big is it? What are its dimensions? What size are the

Convertir size & grade to stock price
- In areas of difficult access, initial prospecting is often done from the air. Geologist in light aircraft and helicopters look for color anomalies. These are areas where the surface has turned red, white, green, or yellow from the weathering of sulfide minerals associated with ore depostis. 
- There are three basic surface surveys used in early stage exploration: geological, geophysical and geochemical. They all provide different data that are interpreted collectively to determine the location of areas to trench and whre to spot drill holes. 
- There is no mistery to a geological survey. It consist of walking the ground, initially along the cleared grid lines, and making a map of surface geologic characteristics. 
- Geophysical surveys are conducted over areas identified by geological ones. They are a measurement of the magnetism, electrical conductivity, or resistivity of the ground. The bigger the size and the greater the variance from its surrondings, the better. 
- When near-surface gold is the target, geochemical surveys provide the best indicative data. They consist of taking soil samples at specific locations, then analyzing them for their mineral content. 

What to look for
- Identifying potential takeover targets early has proven to be a very profitable investment strategy.
- The majors are interested in high-grade, high-profit-margin deposits and those with the potential to contain very large reserves. 



10. Australian mining stocks: What you need to know about the currency, 
economy, mining districts, and australian stock exchange before you invest.
 Neil Charnock

Aussie gold stock performance so far in the gold bull market
- Activity among the juniors tends to occur before major rallies and can last for several months before they launch into a broad rally through the junior sector. 
- The smaller juniors usually respond in the later stages of a gold rally and this is important to keep in mind. 

Selecting junior resource stocks: management
- I prefer a mix of geologist and former operations managers. 

Jorc code and project finance
Lower grade deposits may look attractive during price spikes. If they are large enough and near surface with low stripping ratios. Stripping ratio refers to how much material has to be removed before the company can get at valuable ore. 

Location, location, location
Major districts in Australia are: Kalgoorlie/Coolgardie, Leonora, Menzies, Ashburton, Pilbara, and Kemberley (WA). Included in the far southwest is the giant Boddington mine under construction. Also Bathurst, Hill End, Armidale, Orange, and genralyy right through the Lachlan Fold Belt (NSW). Then there is the Charters Towers, Gympie, Croydon, Mt ISA (QLD), the golden triangle Avoca-Castlemaine_Wedderburn plus Bendigo, Ballarat (central Vic.), Tanami, Pine Creek, McArthur River (silver) (NT). North West and central north Tasmania, Gawler Craton, and York Penninsula (SA). 

Final selection of a junior investment and timing
Sound and proven management, in proven mineral districts and with proven resources are a favorite. Diversification is a bonus. 

Taking your rewards
- One must have an exit strategy because these stocks are not a buy and hold for the long term. They are a buy/sell so don't forget to reward yourself by taking partial profits at the appropriate time. 
- Long term rallies go on much longer than most people expect, however, they do not last forever. At the end of the day it can be wiser to leave room for somebody else to make a profit rather than expecting to exit at the top. 



11. World class deposits: Why you should study past winners.
 Kevin Corcoran

[...]



12. Oh Canada! Know the secret to this country's mining success.
 Dr. Russell McDougal

[...]



13. How to purchase canadian and australian stocks using your online discount broker. 
 Kevin Corcoran

[...]



14. Strategies for junior mining stock speculation.
 Clif Droke

The Investor's Guide to Penny Mining Stocks by Robert Bishop
- If you as a prospective investor believe that the gold price is headed higher, then the junior mining stocks would be an excellent leverage tool. 
- He opines that the blue-chip gold stocks are best suited to profit from cyclical advances in the price of gold. Within the context of a precious metals portfolio, penny mining shares should represent a diversified group of companies. 
- Go against the crowd and you will be right more often than you will be wrong, he says. 
- The advantages of buying at market extremes are even more important in penny markets because these stocks are so much more volatile than bullion itself. 
- A strategy that Bishop strongly advocates is the sale of stocks that haven't performed to expectations. 
- He urges taking partial profits at various times in a soaring stock, a sentiment that even the most aggressive traders should concur with. Bishop advises selling on a double “only if it squares with a short-term trading philosophy or your own ultra-conservative investment viewpoint.”
- A timely selection of fundamentally and technically sound mining shares is the key ingredient to sucess in the junior mining sector. 
- Buying on the dips is a strategy that is usually best left to the larger cap stocks. 



15. It's all about the people: What to look for in a company's management team.
 Dr. Richard S. Appel

The ideal companies of which there are paltry few, are directed by a management team that has one or more important discoveries under their belt.



16. Uranium stocks: An interview with Keving Bambrough, 
market strategist for Sprott Asset Management.
 

[...]



17. Make sure you have some platinum stocks in that gold portfolio.
 Kenneth J. Gerbino

[...]



18. Why small market capitalization equal large gains.
 Jason Hommel

- I usually like to look at companies with market caps in the range of $50 to $100 million and under.
- I don't like to buy stocks under $0,20/share. Many people in the US pay 1 penny per share in commissions, and at $0,10, that's a 10% hit. 
- I look for superlatives. The highest grades. The biggest projects. The best location. 
- I like to buy freshly drilled resources that are higher grades and bigger projects than the market seems to realize and recognize. 
- A good track record means little to me. Just because you have discovered something in the past, is no guarantee that you know what's under the ground in the next area. An explorer with a great track record, he's probably got plenty of investors ready to follow his moves and bid up the stocks excessively. 
- I like a small market cap company, with plenty of drilled up resources located in North America, run by guys who are poor promoters. 



19. Warrants: What they are and how to profit with them.
 Dudley Pierce Baker

- An option gives you the right, not the obligation, to acquire the underlying security/stock at a specific price and expires at a specific date in the future. Option are very short term, usually, 30, 90 or 180 days. 
- Warrants are usually issued with a minimum of 2 to 5 years of life.
- Warrants are all about leverage. In 2006, the top performing warrant in our database was Blue Pearl Mining (TSX: BLE) with a return of 3.729%. The common stock was up 1.310%. 



20. Quantifying silver stock's leverage.
 Roland Watson

[...]



21. 10 types of deposits and the cash minerals locked inside them.
 Kevin Corcoran

[...]



22. How to profit on the road to failure.
 Dr. Richard S. Appel

- For newcomers to the mineral exploration business a large number of potential mineral targets are eliminated before the $250.000 level of expenditures is reached. The fact that a major company continues to work on a property and incurs over $1 million of expenses indicates their great belief in the likelihood of the project's becoming a mine. 
- Industry wide, after $1 million dollars is spent, very few projects remain which a compnay believes warrant further exploration. These are indeed the best of the best. Unfortunately, of these, few actually become mines. 
- In the case of Cominco study, their researchers found over 2.000 projects upon which over $1 million was expended. From this pool, the company only made six or seven mines. 
- This gaves you an idea of the actual likelihood of a junior company developing a project to the point where it is either bought out by a major company or proceeds into production. It also gives one insight into the enourmous profits that can be garnered if an investor picks one of the few companies that will reach the ultimate goal of mining success. 
- One of the qualities that I look for whenever I evaluate a company to feature in Financial Insights, is that it is in the early stages of its development. 
- The time to acquire your share position is when a company's stock is quiet, its price is weak. 
- You will learn that when everyone seems to want to purchase your shares, is the exact time when you should actually be doing some selling!

How can an investor garner success while recognizing that his company is likely destined to fail?
- Plethora of reasons why so few mines are actually built. Acts of nature, the fallibility or overzealousness of man, drop in the market price for the mined metal, or for an unending array of other reasons. 
- Nature has a way of creating a very rich body of mineralization, but later, due to either erosion or one or a series of earth movements, it can either reduce its size or transport a portion of the deposit miles from where it was formed. Either the grade is insufficient, its tonnage is inadequate, the mineralized structure may be at too great a depth to economically mien, the project is too remote to infrastructure, the metallurgy is too complex, or the vein might pinch off or disappear. 
- As for man, a great exploration geologist normally is unprepared to build a profitable mine. 
- It could aslo occur during the feasibility stage if the costs are understimated. 
- Yet, even in these instances the knowledgeable investor can profit! This is because excitement will likely be generated by the announcements of each positive press release. 
- As your company progresses, it is virtually assured that your ability to take some money off the table should present itself on more than one occasion. 
- I try to feature companies that I believe have a major head start over their competitors, and are early in their life cycles. Their management is either already successful or they competent and possess assets that I believe are greatly unrecognized. 
- I attempt to initiate stock purchases before most invests even know of the company's existance. 
- In order to achieve success, a primary investor goal should be to own shares in as many companies as possible. 
- Patience is mandatory for an investor to profit from speculating in this field! Remember, it normalyy requieres five to seven years from the time of a “discovery” to profitable ore extraction if a mine is built.
- I do recognize that I will not own many companies that will ultimately make a mine, or that will be acquiered by a major company. However, I am confident that I will possess a number of stocks that will sufficiently excite the marketplace to drive their shares to substantial levels. 
- From experience, I am convinced that if manage properly, speculating in this field gives one the potential to meet with great financial rewards. This can best be achieved if you buy companies early in their development that possess the finest management, and sell some of your staock each time they achieve success. 

Opportunities:
- Companies successfully proceeds to the point of performing either a pre-feasibility or feasibility study.
- In the event that a company announces a positive feasibility study and prepares to finance and build a mine. 






23. The critical role mining ETFs play in your investment success.
 Kevin Corcoran

[...]

Última edición por Pesetacoiner fecha: 18-feb-2020 a las 15:36.
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Dic 2017 | 1.251 Mens.
Libro 2:
The investor's guide to JUNIOR GOLD. Everything you need to know to make money by Bernie Roseke

Código:
Introduction

Investing for Change
We need to look for one of the following two things: 
- Something not reflected in the stock price today, but should be.
- Something that will happen in the future that will be reflected in the stock price.



Exploration

- It is rare to have a discovery on a claim that hasn't been worked by multiple companies over many years. 
- Wherever there is known deposit, there are many junior exploration companies exploring the surrounding area.
- The first step is usually some type of data collection. It is important for the company you invest in to spend the time to find this information. 
- The next step is usually surface exploration. Looking for certain types of host rocks. 

Drilling
- To define a resource, the deposit must be drilled at a defined spacing. 

Reporting
- Drill results for gold will generally be reported in grams per tonne (g/t). 
- Fire assay only works up to around 50g/t. Above that, other methods must be used that will take a few more days. I have seen mass confusion among investors when a company reports most of the drill results of a particular drill program but withholds some because they're too high. Rest assured this is legit. 

Interpreting Drill results
- There are two important numbers: The length of mineralization and the grade. 
- Low grade deposit can be economic as well as a small, high grade one. 
- Grade (g/t) x Length (m) > 200
- If the middle of the intercept is more than 200m in the ground, add 50 points. Bellow 400m depp the investor should be skeptical. Sometimes the company does not report the depth of the intercept, and this is a red flag as it is important information. 
- No roads and power lines for within about 200 km, add 50-100 points. If road and power access are within a few kilometres, substract 50 points.
- National/State parks, large rivers or sensitive habitat, add 50-100 points.  

General rules of thumb
- Any drill result below 0.5g/t can be written off as worthless rock by investors. I don't believe a mine construction has ever been justified on less than 0.5 g/t. 
- A deposit that looks consistently above 3-5 g/t over 40-50 m is likely to be economic. 10 g/t and greater over 20m is likely to be economic. 
- It is better to see 2 g/t over 100m than 200 g/t over 1m.
- You should not expect a resource estimate to mirror the grade of the drill holes. Make sure you round down the drill results before using them in any rough deposit size calculations. 

Context
Context is incredibly important to drill results. If this company has already found the motherlode, another spectacular drill result sholdn't make a lot of difference. 
[Ver ejemplo the news release en http://pag.16].

Will the stock go up or down?
- Are these new (step-out) holes or are they close to previous holes and thus expected?
- Has the stock already moved?
- Are the results important to the company?
- Are the intercepts deep in the ground?
- Is the site very remote or hard to access?
If it seems like every deposit you reserach has something wrong with it, don't despair. 

National Instrument 43-101
- Was created by the Securities Regulators in Canada in response to the Bre-X fraud of 1995. The company stated to have 200 million ounces of gold deposit (roughly 8% of the world's reserves). It turns out the drill core was “salted” in camp with gold panned from the nearby rivers before it was shipped to the lab. 
- Since the introduction of the National Instrument, confidence has returned to the junior minig sector. 
- Now, after you drill some holes in your backyard, you can say you have a deposit, lots of gold, the motherlode, whatever, but not a “Resource” until a Qualified Person has certified it. 
- Also spells out five confidence levels for mineral deposits, but for the investor's sake we can group them into three: 1) Inferred resource. 2) Measured and Indicated resource. 3) Proven and probable reserve.
- Inferred resources contains resources that a Qualified Person cannot judge with a great degree of confidence. The drill results show something is there, but the drill spacing is so far apart that a deposit must be interpolated between them. 
- Measured and indicated resources is when the Qualified Person can state the boundaries of a deposit with certainty but not whether it is economically minable.
- Proven and probable reserves: Only these two categories can be called Reserves. They have been shown to be economically minable, or at least that the Qualified Person has done an economic analysis and drill hole spacing is such that a mining decision can be based on it. 

Surface exploration
- There are several areas, where surface results appear to be fairly representative of the inground deposits, but this is not the norm. 


Feasibility

Feasibility Study
- It takes into account many factors, like the mine layout, optimum mining and milling rates, power, road, and rail access and more. 
- It usually takes several years, 5-7% of mine construction costs, to produce. 
- IRR (Internal Rate of Return) should be 20% or greater.
- Capex (Capital Expenditure) is the cost of building the mine.
- Opex (Operating Expenditure) is the yearly ongoing maintenance cost.
- Assumed Metal Prices: you should make note of what the assumed metal prices are so you can decide for yourself if the company is conservative enough to justify building a mine on those numbers. Suffice it to say that for the purpose of valuing a mining property, a purchaser will understand risks. The best way to get a handle on this is the sensitivity analysis. Take a look at what the break even metrics are – by metal price, or Capex, or whatever. The big discoveries are snapped up by the majors long before a feasibility study is completed.  

Pre-Feasibility Study
- Includes the calculation of Reserves and milling rates but with lower level of confidence.

Preliminary Economic Assessment
- Scoping study is even more preliminary than a pre-feasibility study. It cannot upgrade resources to reserves. 

Resource Estimate
Juniors will often return back to the drilling stage to attemp to define more resources before proceeding further down the feasibility process.

Environmental Considerations
To build an open pit mine, the following timelines exist.
- Baseline Studies (3-5 years)
- Information Requirements (6 motnhs)
- Application and Public Consultation (18 months)
- Approval, Rejection, or Additional Information Required
Many companies will start the environmental baseline studies before they have a feasibility study. If the company you are looking at has not done this, please be aware of the timeline involved. 

Political Issues
- The safe countries: Canada, USA, Mexico, Australia and South Africa. Sensitive environmental habitat, people that require moving, native land issues and others can all derail a project. 
- South America: Chile, Peru and Colombia are the best. Bolivia and Ecuador are not favorable, and Venezuela is an investment wasteland. 
- Africa: This means that in most places, mining executives must make friends with the local tribal leaders as well as the goverment. Because of the lack of understanding of African practices and also the common friction between the tribes themselves in the rural areas where mines are located, many junior mining companies avoid Africa. 
- Southeast Asia: As part of the volcanic “ring of fire”many large mines exist in Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and the Phillipines. Wherever large mines exist, investors can have some confidence that goverment is at least somewhat supportive. 
- China: Is now the world's largest producer of gold, mostly from goverments-owned mining companies. Junior mining markets don't place a discount on Chinese stocks but I believe there should be one. 

Share Capital

Share Structure 101
Most juniors have no revenue to speak of. A junior will periodically issue shares out of the treasury and sell them in a private placement. With any success, the junior will find a deposit and the investors will realize a return on their investment. 

Typical Share Counts
- Junior gold exploration company should start out around 10-20 million shares. By the time they get to 200-300 million shares, they are pushing the limits because investors will not buy them anymore. They must roll up into another company or close the doors. 
- Generally, investors are focused on the number of shares a discovery is divided into and once and it gets too high investors lose interest.

Market Capitalization
The exact share price of a company is irrelevant because they could have any number of shares outstanding. The important number to the investor is the market cap.

Financing Price
When a private placement is announced because the stock price will usually drop to the financing price. 

Warrants
- In addition to the shares, the investor almost always gets warrants. 
- A warrant is the right to buy X number of shares, at X price, anytime before X date.
- The number of shares is typically half of the shares purchased in the placement, the price is slightly lower, and the date is 4-12 months in the future. 

Getting Into Private Placements
- In the USA and Canada, you must be an “accredited investor” to participate in private placement of public companies. 
- Three types of financing: Bought Deal financing; Private Placement; Non-brokered Private Placement.
- For bought deals, you probably can't get in. A mutual fund, hedge fund, or institution(s) has bought the entire share block.
- For regular private placements, the shares will be brokered by an investment bank. Generally, they will approach other investment institutions about purchasing the shares for their funds, or their clientes. If your online trading account contains offers for “New Issues”, you might en up finding them there. 
- In an non-brokered private placement, everything is wide open. The company is selling the shares themselves and will sell to anyone they please. This generally happens in a strong market. You need to call the company inmediatly. From my experience, in a strong market the shares are generally all more or less spoken for the first day. Also from my experience, they will take small investments ($5000+), but this depends on the company. 




Management

I am convinced that management is the biggest factor in all stock investing, but particularly in junior mining. Different things they need to do well: 
- Raising money
- Selling their story
- Deciding how much money to spend on each property
- Where to drill, when to abandon a property
- Project management, procurement, scheduling
- Staffing

Management Accessibility
Management of a junior mining company should be accessible to a retail investor. For junior companies it's the IR guy's job to communicate with individual investors. In fact, when researching a new company, talking to the investor relations manager will give you the big picture much, much quicker than browsing their website or most other methods.

Talk to the CEO, but don't talk to the CEO
- An investor should never decide on the competence of management by talking to a CEO at a conference, listening to a company presentation, watching an online video, or anything of that sort. 
- Everyone has a good story, else they wouldn't be in business, and your job is to separate the great story tellers from the real result producers.

Building a Mine
- Particularly when the market is hot, you will start to see explorers attempt to transition to producers. This should trigger red flags with the investor. 
- Building a mine is easily the world's biggest project management challenge.
- I have seen 3-4 companies make the transition succesfully. I have also seen about 50 do it unsuccessfully. 

Pointers, Tips, and Advice
- Past History: If they have already sold a deposit or company to a major, they will be hungy to do it again. If they have experience with building a mine, this is a good sign. 
- Leaders Attract Certain Types of Followers: One of the smell tests I use is a constant observation of the investor relations guy. Does he work hard, avoid saying things he shouldn't, etc. Many an unsuspecting IR dude has been rigorously analyzed for insight into the management's values. Another fairly reliable method I use is to look into the bulleting boards and see what their investor following is like. Shady promotion jobs will attract an uneducated, aggressive following looking to get rich quick and not the types you want to meet in a dark alley after the company goes bust. On the opposite end of the scale, if there is a lot of intelligent conversation going on, that speaks for the type of following management has attracted which subsequently tells you something about the management. I have consistently seen the strong correlation between the types of investors and management, but I also note that any company that has seen large stock price increases will be overwhelmed by get-rich-quick types, pump-and-dumpers, and shary promoters regardless of management.
- Delays: For an exploration company, no news about drill results almost always means bad news. Large projects are generally always behind schedule. When there are many contractors and consultants things quite often fall behind even though the project is not in trouble. 

Insider Ownership
- The average insider ownership for junior mineral exploration companies is around 5 – 7%.
- Insider Ownership and trading guidelines: If the field staff and geologist don't have shares or options, this is a red flag. There are too many companies out there whose primary business is not mining, but making people (i.e. not you) rich. You can spot these by their share structure and ownership. 
- Options and warrants should be viewed like shares already owned. 
- Certainly it can't be a bad thing if management is buying and it can't be a good thing if management is selling, but every insider transaction has a human behind it that has to make financial decisions that work for their life situation. I believe that you should hold out on having opinions on insider trading unless there is a trend. 



The Gold Market

The main source of gold market information is the World Gold Council, an industry organization supported by 24 of the world's leading gold producing companies.

Supply
The yearly production average over five years is: 
- Mine production: 77.900.000 ; 59%
- Official Sector Sales: 8.300.000 ; 6%
- Recycled: 46.700.000 ; 35%

Demand
The yearly demand averaged over five years is: 
- Investment: 41.700.000 ; 31%
- Industrial: 15.300.000; 11%
- Jewelry: 75.900.000 ; 57%

Above Ground Stockpiles
- There has been a virtual explosion of gold exchange traded funds and investment funds since the mid 2000's. These have been a fund very large net contributor to demand for gold and in my opinion the principle factor driving gold well above its commodity counterparts since the recession of 2008-2009. 
- There is no question that a significant amount of new money has entered the gold market since 2000, but most of it has gone into investing in the metal, not the stocks. 

Trading in Gold
Investing in the metal itself can take several forms: Purchasing the prhysical metal, purchasing a fund holding physicial metal, purchasing derivatives.
- Purchasing the physical metal: the most popular coins are the Gold Maple, the Gold Eagle and the Krugerrand.
- Purchasing a Fund Holding the Physical Metal: In this scenario, the fund has a predetermined number of units and a correspoing quantity of metal is held in storage somewhere by the fund. Be aware that most funds will not be mandated to store the physical metal so much as the equivalent of the physical metal. They could be holding optinons, futures, or other derivatives. They could be lending out their gold for a monthly fee like the central banks have been known to do. 
- Purchasing Derivatives: Like the funds, you can purchase derivatives yourself in order to speculate on the price of the physical metal. The three main types of derivatives used for gold and precious metals are: Call options, Put options and Futures.



Types of Companies and their Valuation

Valuation
Any asset is worth what someone will pay for it, and in the junior mining world, the buyers are the major mining companies. 

Valuation Techniques
Valuing a junior mining company is notoriously difficult and extraordinarily complex. 

In the following sections we will look at each type of company in this sector and attempt to find ways to value them.

The Explorer
- An explorer owns one or mineral titles and systematically explores them with the goal of finding an economic deposit. 
- These companies tend to move in and out of projects frequently. They either “earn in” which means they will retain 60-80% ownership in exchange for doing the exploration, or they sell the property for a Net Smelter Return (NSR) royalty of usually around 1-3%, if the property were ever to go into production. 
- The investor is advised to search out the context of drill results before they are released. Are they step-out holes (high risk, high return) or infill holes, designed to create the drill hole spacing for a resource estimate. 
- Valuing pure explorers is very difficult. The major factors are the ones that increase the odds of success. I believe the most important factors are:
+ The state of the marketplace: In 2007-2008, most pure explorers were trading upwards of $200 million market cap. During 2008-2009, most were $20 million or less. 
+ Management's previous success: After a successful run, management teams often sell out and start again. 
+ Nearby properties: Valuations are always high around a find, and for large discoveries even the neighbours can make investors a lot of money. 
- What happens when they win?: When the drill turn up the goods, the rewards are fantastic. If you are invested in at least one junior gold exploration company, you live with the dream of waking up one day and realizing you never have to work again. Unfortunately, nobody can predict a drill hole, not even the geologist who spend lifetimes trying to find one. 

The Successful Explorer
- This category contains stocks that have moved substantially on drill results. 
- These companies still have no cash flow, but are likely to have the ability to raise cash without significant dilution. 
- For a successful exploration property, a number of factors start to come to light within a few years:
+ Property ownership: Some properties have an earn-back option so the explorer doesn't get all the ownership.
+ Politics: Is there going to be opposition? Are there other mines in the country?
+ Social: Are the people supportive? Are there natives? Do people need to be moved?
+ Geographical: Is it in rugged terrain? Is it far from power and infrastucture? 
+ Depth: Is the deposit deep in the ground?
- In general, it is not a good time to invest after a significant find. The stock has moved substantially and the next steps are less glamorous and take a lot of time and money. The company must now carry out expensive “in-fill” drilling, which they will pay up but they tell the  investor nothing. Then they must do the pre-feasibility and feasibility study, which takes tens of millions of dollars and 3-5 years. The best scenario is usually that they get purchased in a bidding war. 
- When a company has an established deposit, an investor can value them by the following methods:
+ Market Cap per ounce of resource
+ Market Cap per ounce of production
+ Combination
+ Net Present Value (NPV)

The Prospect Generator
- The concept is that it is just as good to have partial ownership of a discovery and a low share count than full ownership with high share count. Therefore, these companies look for grassroots exploration properties by staking new ground or purchasing complete ownership for cheap. 
- Then they joint venture the properties out on terms that ensure the other parties spend all of the money. 
- The smaller stake in the property and smaller share count should cancel, but the odds of taking part in a discovery are increased because they are exposed to many properties instead of just one. 
- There is no need to sell off on bad drill results on any one property, because they have many other properties.

The “Second Look” Company
- A junior options a property from a major, usually a large project somewhere in their development pipeline that has no commitment for funding yet, and proceeds to determine its economic viability. 
- A junior could convince a major to give up a 20-30% stake in exchange for determining the economic viability that the major hasn't been willing to pursue. 
- Small properties are just not worth the risk for the junior.
- Comparisons are very important. If someone down the road is mining, say, 100k tonnes/year at 0.8 g/t and the drill results at your company's property are consistently above 0.8 g/t, with a similar deposit size, it will probably be mined eventually. 
- Also, it is natural when you look at one of these to think that if this property were really as good as the producing mine beside it, it would be developed by now instead of the other one. 
- Not necessarily. In fact, I would argue the opposite, that the first mine in an area is not likely to be the best deposit in the area. 
- For “Second Look” companies, the big rise in the stock of the junior usually does not happen when the feasibility study shows excellent numbers. By then, everything is out in the open. Rather, at some point, through additional drilling, scoping studies, promotion on Wall Street or Bay Street, they will get “discovered”, and investors will reap large rewards with seemingly little major news. 

The Small Producer
- These are companies that have an existing mine, with cash flows, but their value is not derived primarily from production levels. 
- The comapny is in one of two scenarios:
+ If most of the prospective minerals on the property have been found, the value comes primarily from the mine and the company will trade based on revenue and profit margins. 
+ If there is still much more potential to find minerals, the value comes primarily from the exploration potential and the company will trade like an explorer. 
- Valuation has two components, current production and future production profile. 
- It may sound counterintuitive, but investors have a longer time horizon for small producer than majors. For example a small producer who is constructing a plant upgrade will trade based on it being completed, even if that's years down the road. Majors, on the other hand, trade based on the next earnings call. New mines coming on stream must go through construction, then mining, and then wait for the next quarter before all the cash flow appears on quarterly reports and investors give it credit for the mine. 


The Royalty Company
- A conservative way to play the junior gold market is with royalty companies. They buy, sell and otherwise develop royalty streams on the production of others.
- Their share prices are less volatile than junior gold stocks, but more volatile than the general market. Their revenues are very stable and the risk for the investor is considerably lower than an average junior gold company. 
- With royalty companies the downside is the ability to grow the revenue streams. 

Intermediate and Senior Producer
- Majors that appear to have very litlle in their production pipeline will not look very attractive today, but they will be the most aggressive in their hunt for juniors with good deposits, so they may have the bigger upside. 
- In my experience, majors need to have a “company maker” or two at all times. This means a deposit that costs under $300/ounce to mine.
- There are only so many company-making deposits in the world, and when another one gets discovered there is always a heated bidding war for it. 



Investment Strategies

Buy and Hold
- You will need thick skin. I would expect a loss of 50-75% across the entire sector approximately every 5-7 years. Holding the best stock in the industry won't make you money during these times.
- If you buy and hold, place a high priority on management.
- Take a look at companies that have alternative business models, especially revenue generating ones like the royalty companies.
- If you are looking for juniors who are transitioning to production, be cautious. Bulding a mine is easily the world's biggest project management challenge.

Short Term trade
- Trading the sector volatility can be successful as a strategy.
- Junior gold stocks, tend to move in parabolic fashion. That is, inch up, gaining momentum until they go almost vertical, and then fall back very quickly. 
- At the peak it's so volatile that you can't possibly catch teh top (it will be an intraday top). If you're up 20%+ in a day, it might still go to 50% or 100% but you need to just sell and count your profits without regret because holding past the peak will be painful.
- Another strategy I have employed is to watch for the parabolic tops and then short sell. 
- Regarding parabolic moves in general, I would use a general guide of 25% - 35% gains in one day as an indicator of the top. 

Momentum
- Similar to parabolic stock investing, buying on momentum makes sense because there is no sector like junior gold for momentum moves. 
- Investors, particularly institutional investors, simply “discovered” the stock. A new CEO was making many presentations to institutional investors. There were probably many watchers and once it started to move all those watchers started buying. What a classic case for momentum investing in this industry.

Drill Result Speculation
- Another investment strategy is speculating on drill results. Unfortunately, I can't tell you who is going to hit the big one. But let me give you some insights.
- Surface exploration usually isn't greatly representative of what's in the ground. 
- Stocks can move on expectations alone, only to disappoint even if the results are less than expected.
- When you're looking at a stock that has already make a really big move due to drill results, check your emotions first. You should never invest on emotion.
- My personal strategy is never to invest after drill results move a stock. 

Area plays
- A lot of money can be made on area plays. Once a significant discovery is made, all of the players in the district make money for investors, although the discoverer is obviously the one you want to hold.
- Stock valuations can move somewhere between triple and ten-fold simply by being in the right area.
- There are many gold areas in the world, and picking an area play before it heats up is notoriouly difficult. Usually a discovery creates an area play, and thus you will find yourself trying to find the most likely discovery area. 
- Although it has become much better, this sector still has people who's primary business is mining investors rather than gold. Do your due diligence on every management team when looking at an area play, and don't forget the insider trading data which can smell some of them out. Make sure they have geologist and management with a history in the industry, and other properties. 

Investing in a Buyout Candidate
- When a major buys a junior, they always need to offer a premium because shareholders are invested for gains and will not sell for the current price.
- A good bid will be around 30% above some type of weighted average.
+ On the low end, if you get offered a premium of 15% or lower, you should think hard about it.
+ On the high end, a bidding war will result and the eventual buyout price will be double to triple the original trading price. 
- The first concern of a major is always to increase their earnings per share. This can be done via expansion at existing mines, purchasing producing mines, or building new ones. In the case of building new ones, they always have a development pipeline several times larger than their existing mine count. So any junior that they buy will fit into their development pipeline. 
- But I would think that unless it fits into the front end they will not be spending big money or get into a bidding war on it. I have seen juniors get purchased only to have their project sit in the development pipeline for years, but usually after being purchased from a junior a mine starts construction within two years. 
- Majors will spend money at any stage of the cycle, whether a feasibility study has been done, or a resource estimate, right down to drill results. 
- The bidding war does not happen right away after the news. I have never seen a junior hit a fantastic drill intersection and a major put in a bid right away. Six months or so seems to be the minimum wait time, and this is when the investment opportunity for short term gains presents itself. It makes sense that a major would not spend billions on a stock when it's volatile right after some news. Most juniors sit there for years after a discovery, produce resource estimates, scoping studies, etc. only to get hefty buyout offers and bidding wars later on. 
- Suffice it to say my list of things that make a deposit attractive to a major are, in order of importance:
1. Large – 5 million ounces or bigger
2. High grade core – reduce the risk
3. Payback period and break even point

Refurbishing Old Mines
- Sometimes juniors purchase old non-producing mines or small producing mines on the cheap and improve them. 
- The most important question is: Why did it shut down?
- The important time of period for the investor to look at is about 1985 to 2000. 
- This is the time when pessimism reigned, the gold price was below $400/ounce for a long time. 
- Nobody thinks that the gold price will ever go back to $400 so merely the right strategy with the right property will result in big gains. 
- Beware of mine closures due to problems with the deposit. This is more common than you might think. Before NI 43-101 you could get away with a lot, and many small mines were built based on drill results that were too wide. 
- When the mine closes, and then 20 years later someone wants to reopen it, you better place a high priority on NI 43-101 compliant resources before investing. 
- Sometimes they say there is another extension of the deposit that the previous miners didn't know about. I wouldn't assume that the previous miners were dumb. They probably didn't have the large equipment that we do. They probably couldn't mine as cheaply or as deep as we can today, but they probalbly knew where to look as much as we do. This is a difficult case to discern because I would question how the new operators knew of the extension before they purchased the mine. Nonetheless, some juniors have done this successfully. 
- In my experience, analyzing a junior refurbishing an old mine takes a lot of research. Before you invest, you need to know why the old mine closed, when, under what circumstances, and why it's different this time. 
- That's because if you know why the mine closed, or whatever the negative circumstance is that's no longer present, you can be pretty certain of your investment. 
- Dig deep, because they won't readily tell you about the problems the old mine had.
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Viejo 18-feb-2020, 22:20   #142
duply
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Nov 2017 | 3.519 Mens.

El inversor modesto.

Muchas gracias @Pesetacoiner

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Originalmente Escrito por duply Ver Mensaje
Quiero estar posicionado para el próximo empujón.
Adjunto el movimiento de mi cartera solamente hoy +10,03%. Me recuerda a aquellos fabulosos días del verano de 2019.



Saludos a @Corlagon

Última edición por duply fecha: 18-feb-2020 a las 22:28.
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Viejo 18-feb-2020, 22:38   #143
Pesetacoiner
Q vuelve la rubia cohone
 
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Dic 2017 | 1.251 Mens.
Cita:
Originalmente Escrito por duply Ver Mensaje
Muchas gracias @Pesetacoiner



Adjunto el movimiento de mi cartera solamente hoy +10,03%. Me recuerda a aquellos fabulosos días del verano de 2019.



Saludos a @Corlagon
De nada, lo prometido es deuda.

Enhorabuena por esa subida! Así da gusto, parece Bitcoin en sus mejores momentos...

Vaya subidón ha pegado EGO, yo estuve por entrar hace unos dias pero me esperé para ver si aguantaba los 7 o se iba para abajo. Todavía no lo tengo claro si es un bull trap, pero vaya subidita que ha pegado.

Una duda de Interactive, como tengo q hacer para ver esa info de mi cartera?
soy nuevo en IB, algun consejo para q me maneje mejor?
y como haces para apalancarte?

Última edición por Pesetacoiner fecha: 18-feb-2020 a las 22:45.
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Viejo 18-feb-2020, 22:49   #144
duply
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El inversor modesto.

Cita:
Originalmente Escrito por Pesetacoiner Ver Mensaje
De nada, lo prometido es deuda.

Enhorabuena por esa subida! Así da gusto, parece Bitcoin en sus mejores momentos...

Vaya subidón ha pegado EGO, yo estuve por entrar hace unos dias pero me esperé para ver si aguantaba los 7 o se iba para abajo. Todavía no lo tengo claro si es un bull trap, pero vaya subidita que ha pegado.

Una duda de Interactive, como tengo q hacer para ver esa info de mi cartera?
soy nuevo en IB, algun consejo para q me maneje mejor?
Bueno, realmente no ejecuto ganancias, pero sí, da gusto ver el sector. Ando con otra especulación apalancada con CFDs que ya os mostraré el jueves, ahí sí ejecuto ganancias o pérdidas.

IB yo compro o vendo en la APP, es más sencillo y si se va la luz no pasa nada. Luego si es con margen le das a BALANCE DE CIERRE, sí a todo y se te queda la deuda en euros al 1 y algo % anual.

En la plataforma de PC arriba a la izquierda le das a NUEVA VENTANA, STOCK/ETF BENCHMARKER y ves lo de mi captura.

EGO es para el oro lo que AXU para la plata. Son muy reactivas al precio de las onzas, con lo que ello conlleva. Bajo mi opinión en 2019 EGO exageró los retrasos en Turquía y puede que recupere, pero claro, habrá que ver qué dice Mr. Market. Yo le hice un mal timing y es de las pocas que llevo con pérdidas, pero si no la he soltado es porque creo que subirá. La afeité en su día pero un poco.

Última edición por duply fecha: 18-feb-2020 a las 22:52.
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Viejo 19-feb-2020, 13:56   #145
Corlagon
Zidane, uno di noi.
 
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Oct 2010 | 15.605 Mens.

Forero con valors y humildat

Cita:
Originalmente Escrito por duply Ver Mensaje
Muchas gracias @Pesetacoiner



Adjunto el movimiento de mi cartera solamente hoy +10,03%. Me recuerda a aquellos fabulosos días del verano de 2019.



Saludos a @Corlagon
Si yo encantado de que tengas beneficios. Solo te dije que si quieres compararte con un índice o sector y vas apalancado al 150%, debes compararte con el índice al 150%, porque lo demás es hacer trampas. Y, por supuesto, hacerlo en las 10 semanas. Tendrás días que saques mucho más y días que saques mucho menos. Ojala llegues a ese 50% anual.

Prefiero ir al infierno. Allí están Julio Cesar, Alejandro Magno y otros valerosos comandantes. En el cielo solo hay pescadores y carpinteros y hombres de poco brío.
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Viejo 19-feb-2020, 14:21   #146
duply
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Nov 2017 | 3.519 Mens.

El inversor modesto.

Gracias @Corlagon. No hago trampas, pongo en todas las actualizaciones mi nivel de apalancamiento y aunque mi cartera no es como el XAU cuando el XAU va mejor que el SILJ por su mayor exposición al oro lo digo para que la gente sepa qué es lo que pasa en todo momento. Honestidad total.



Hoy he leído que hay posibilidad que ante el alza del paladio modifiquen alguna fábrica para sustituirlo por platino en algunos vehículos. Y el mayor productor mundial de platino es...... SBGL . Pase lo que pase con el tema del humo de los coches es un win-win.

Si miramos ahora el premarket ha hecho un +40% en menos de 7 jornadas.

https://thevault.exchange/?get_group...-19feb2020.pdf

https://thevault.exchange/?get_group...-19feb2020.pdf

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Viejo 19-feb-2020, 17:51   #147
duply
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Nov 2017 | 3.519 Mens.

El inversor modesto.

Por qué se deben poseer acciones de mineras de oro: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gu...mmel021920.pdf

Última edición por duply fecha: 19-feb-2020 a las 17:59.
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Viejo 20-feb-2020, 22:24   #148
duply
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El inversor modesto.

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Viejo 20-feb-2020, 23:11   #149
duply
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El inversor modesto.

Sigo divirtiéndome con la especulación de los resultados de mineras que muestran fortaleza. De 6, 5 me han salido bien y Asanko Gold no se mueve así que tendré paciencia ya que me crujen por entrar y salir, si las acciones son muy baratas me aplican un mínimo por acción con los CFDs y sale caro. La empresa no va mal y recompran acciones. Le meto 1000 pavillos apalancado a cada una. Esto es de hoy:





Ayer cambié los cromos de Sabina Gold and Silver por los de Agnico Eagle. Vi absorción, subida y me arriesgué aunque la confirmación del giro estimo que ha sido hoy. De momento ha salido bien. A la primera se le espera poco crecimiento este año y no reaccionó al subidón del oro. El proyecto me parece bonito pero aquí estamos para ganar dinero.

Agnico Eagle:

Última edición por duply fecha: 20-feb-2020 a las 23:18.
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Viejo 21-feb-2020, 16:29   #150
duply
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Nov 2017 | 3.519 Mens.

El inversor modesto.

Atentos a la actualización de hoy.

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